Monday, June 29, 2015

The seat of one of the world's oldest civilisations is in trouble!

Greece is in dire straits! The government had decided to close banks for seven days and limit withdrawals @ 60 euros/day, to tide over the period. Let's have a quick run through the anatomy of this economic crisis:-

     2001                Greece joins the euro. Greek economy grew, a big economic boom followed.
     2008                Greece faced with financial crisis. Since it was one of the poorest and most in
                             debt, suffered the most.
     2013                Unemployment reaches 28%.

     A few notable points:-

         (a) If Greece wasn't in the euro, it could have boosted its economy by printing more of its
         currency, the drachma. Consequently:-
           
              (i) It would have lowered the value of the drachma in the international markets.
             (ii) Made Greek exports more competitive.
            (iii) Lower domestic interest rates and encourage domestic investments making it easy
                   for Greek debtors to service their debts.
         (b) But Greece shares its monetary policy with the rest of Europe. The German dominated
         European Central Bank has given a monetary policy that's just right for Germany but tight for
         Greece, putting that country into depression. It's so deep that it makes it difficult to raise the
         money it needs to make its debt payments.
         (c) For the last 5 yrs, Greece has been negotiating with the European Commission, the
         European Central bank and the IMF - dubbed the 'troika' - for financial assistance with its
         debt burden.
         (d) The troika has been providing Greece with loans in exchange for tax
         hikes and spending cuts. Accordingly, Greece is to pay back $1.77 billions to the IMF by
         tomorrow.
         (e) In 2010, Greek debt was held by private banks, so a Greek default could trigger financial
         panic. But since then, the debt has been consolidated in the hands of the rich European
         governments greatly reducing the risk of a financial crisis, if Greece defaults.

The Greeks are now with faced with a hard choice between two bad options viz.:-

        * Pay the debt and accept the troika's demands for further austerity.
        * Defy the troika which would lead to a default on debt payment and possibly, a Greek
           exit from the euro!

On 05 Jul, the country goes for a referendum to chose between Scylla and Charybdis!
(The reference to the characters of the Greek epic, Iliad, is intentional though ironical). 

       
Tailpiece.

1. Meanwhile, the Greek economy is melting down. Knowing that Greek Euro deposits could soon be transformed to devalued drachma deposits, the rush to withdraw money from the ATMs continues. Hence, the governmental order to shutter down the banks and limit withdrawals @ 60 euros/day!

2. And who're the culprits who've brought the country to such a sorry pass? Politicians, of course. Successive governments instead of following sound fiscal policies, played to the gallery, with populist schemes that bled the economy for short term gains of winning mandates. Let it be a lesson to all politicians that they must avoid following mere 'vote catching' measures and short term gains!!

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