Monday, June 25, 2018

CPEC - China's imperatives.

The world's economic model was shaped by two stark events - the post World War II Breton Woods conference at New Hampshire and the shift from the gold standard to the US $ as the trading currency. Since then, these two events have led to inter dependency of nations on manufacturing and trade. For example, China-South Korea-Japan are very heavily dependent on each other for finished goods. That is one part.

The other part is that China is supplying 60% of the world's white goods. But now, with hi-tech becoming more easily available, a number of other nations, too, are trying to be exporters. The global consumption size and consequently, the import size is, however, finite. Labour costs are a major input into a product's price.

So China, which wants to remain the prime exporter and supplier to the world, is doing three things:-

   (a) It's investing very heavily into IIOT(Industry Internet of Things) and in AI(Artificial
        Intelligence). In fact, China is the biggest buyer of AI equipped robotics in the world today. The
        aim is to shift the 4-man shift with one robot(So, no pay, pension, health care, food, bonus etc).
   (b) It plans to make an unprecedented jump to high quality value manufacturing(Eg. Japan). But for
        this, it needs to outsource lesser tasks to other less developed nations.
   (c) Hence, here enter countries like Indonesia, Vietnam(China just opened a new SEZ) and now,
        Pakistan. It wants Pakistan to become one of the nations doing the low-end production/
        manufacturing and passing these on to China for the finishing process.

China is investing US $ 56 billion in Pakistan for the CPEC(China Pakistan Economic Corridor) of which US $ 28 billion will go towards power generation projects. All these have the potential to jump start Pakistan's economy.

Additionally, it will be very difficult for India to attack Pakistan without inflicting damage on Chinese assets!


Tailpiece.

It was a personal blow. Jayanthi, of the SBI pension cell, was talked to and she'd told me that she has forwarded my letter - more than a month after I'd submitted it to mom's bank at Kottarakkara - today to the PCDA, Allahabad and she has endorsed a copy to me. It will take three months, she says. And a month lost for no rhyme or reason!
 

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