The art of economic war.
This was not a war.
No bombs were dropped.
No soldiers died.
But....
A superpower slowly went down on
its knees.
The weapons? Tariffs.
The trap? FTAs (Free Trade
Agreements).
The target? Not Donald Trump....
but his economic ego.
This was not a loud war.
This was a silent, suffocating war.
Where did the pressure on Trump
begin?
Trump's real concern wasn't what
India said.
It was what India did - without
saying anything.
India never once said:
"Reduce tariffs on us or our stock
market will crash".
That's the language of the weak.
That's begging.
India used Institutional
Counterweight Strategy
A planned, legal - yet ruthless -
economic move.
No threats anywhere.
But with every step, the opponent
struggled to breathe.
First Move - Europe (27
countries) The Trojan Horse
India first joined hands
with the 27 nations of the European
Union.
It was called -
"The Mother of All Deals".
The real shift happened there.
European cars, Wines, whiskies,
Medicines....
All positioned to become cheaper
than American products.
First Mover Advantage - to the EU.
America? Standing outside the
market, watching.
That's when Trump realised - This
wasn't a tariff war. This was market
occupation.
Second Move - Canada
The Licensed Smuggling Route.
Next plan - FTA with Canada.
In business language, this is
"Smuggling with a License".
Simple Maths :
1 kg Indian rice = Rs.100
Direct export to USA - 50% tariff
- Rs.150
But...
FTA with Canada - Rs.100 to
Canada
Canada rebrands
Rs.20 margin
Sells to USA - Rs.120
Because between USA - Canada,
there is USMCA.
Meaning -
The snake dies without breaking
the stick.
Indian goods legally enter the US
through the gaps in American trade
structures.
Trump understood this game. In
the end, not ego - but economic
interest decides.
Why did tariffs drop to 18%? The
forced concession
Publicly he said :
"Modi is my dear friend".
But the numbers tell another
story :
Base tariff on India - 25%
Secondary tariff due to Russian oil
- another 25%
* Total = 50%
India reduced Russian oil imports.
Didn't stop completely.
so one 25% layer was removed.
The remaining 25% was brought
down to 18%.
This wasn't friendship.
This was economic submission
under compulsion.
The US couldn't afford to lose
India as an alternative to China.
Russian Oil - The Grand
Deception
Numbers don't lie.
But political narratives do.
2022 : 50,000 barrels/day
2024 : 1.8 million barrels/day
Now : 1.2 million barrels/day
Lower than 2024.
But still massively higher than
2022.
India refines this oil
into diesel and jet fuel
and sells it back to Europe.
Not a double game. A multi-layered
survival strategy.
Why did the market dance?
The blood flow effect.
Stock markets don't run on
patriotism.
They don't run on sentiments.
They run on cash flow.
USA means :
Dollar flows.
FII money.
Hedge funds.
The moment a deal signal came
Nifty +600
IT - Jobs - Loans - Real Estate
- Cement, Steel.
This isn't just growth.
This is a controlled economic chain
reaction.
Russia - The Economic Dead End
Russia is a friend.
But not a market.
Trade : $70 B
India buys : $65 B
Russia buys : $5 B
Money doesn't circulate back.
Spending power is limited.
The stock market doesn't need
friendship.
It needs liquidity.
A pawn in the game Pakistan -
The Disposable Asset
Pakistan faces - 19% tariffs.
India faces 18%.
The same leader who once said
"Pakistan is my friend" has now
signed a deal with India.
In politics, trust is not currency.
Leverage is.
Pakistan doesn't have it.
Final Shot
The House always wins
India didn't fight loudly. Didn't beg.
wasn't submissive.
It engaged Europe.
Built routes through Canada.
Turned economic leverage into a
weapon.
Trump stepped back.
Modi gained ground.
But this is not the end.
This is just the first bloodstain in
the global trade war.
The house always wins.
This time...the house is India.
Courtesy.
What'sApp
Tailpiece.
A quiet Thursday, in the literal sense thanks to the Bharat bandh called by the leftist Trade Unions. Saw one of their leaders grinning shamelessly on evening television saying, "The bandh was a great success".
"For having given discomfort, hardship and suffering to their fellow citizens?"
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