Friday, February 15, 2019

What next after Pulwama?

A day after the terror strike, the Cabinet Committee on Security(CCS) has given the armed forces a free hand to decide on the timing, place and nature of their response to the carnage that left 40 CRPF men killed. India also revoked the 'Most Favoured Nation(MFN)' status to Pakistan that would hit Pakistan's exports to India which stood at $488.5 million(Around Rs.3,482.3 crores) in 2017-'18. The actions taken(Indicated in normal letters)/options available(Indicated in Italics) are listed below:-

   (a) The armed forces have stepped up pressure along the volatile LoC with the Pakistan Army, too,
        raising its alert levels.
   (b) In a major diplomatic offensive, India held a briefing for envoys of 25 countries including from
         P5 nations - US, China, Russia, UK and France - during which it highlighted Pakistan's role in
         using terrorism as an instrument of state policy.
   (c) Before the above meeting, the Foreign Secretary had summoned the Pakistani High
         Commissioner and issued a very strong demarche over the attack. It has been told to take
         immediate and verifiable action against terror outfits operating from its soil.                 
   (d) The government needs to seriously consider limited cross border strikes - short of going to war 
         - to compel Islamabad to change its behaviour and these include:-

         (i) "Shallow" ground-based attacks.
        (ii) Occupation of some heights.
       (iii) Restricted but precision air strikes on "non-state targets" in Pakistan.
       (iv) Carefully calibrated air strikes which are the most viable and effective option to teach a
              punitive lesson.
        (v) Fighters like Su 30MKIs, Mirage 2000s and Jaguars, armed with "smart" glide bombs and
              and missiles, can be used to take out terror camps and launch pads near the LoC from
              "stand off ranges" without crossing into Pakistani airspace. Preparation time for such
              attacks will be minimal.
       (vi) The 90 km Smerch multiple-launch rocket systems and the 290 km BrahMos supersonic
              cruise missile can be used to target Army posts, terror camps, launch pads and staging
              areas.

But exercising any such coercive measures will require the requisite political will to risk retaliation and escalation. The aim would be to target the terror infrastructure in PoK, not the Pakistan heartland or its citizens. Hard kinetic options have become a necessity! 

And a few words of caution:-

         (a) The use of any air or missile strike on Pakistani territory, backed as it will have to be with
              troop mobilisation on the ground is bound to be escalatory as well as it will lead to collateral
              damage in the absence of hard intelligence and target co-ordinates.
         (b) Virtually, the entire air defence machinery of Pakistan is geared towards India. Things can
               easily spin out of control. Do not ever forget the fact that Pakistan has often threatened first
               use of nuclear weapons!


Tailpiece.

Had got up a trifle late after the alarm had gone off, gone through our chores and were ready well in time.

No comments:

Post a Comment