..........contd.
On the eve of the summit, the Global Times - the ruling Chinese Communist Party's paramount mouthpiece - had warned that an attempt to replicate NATO in Asia will not succeed. In turn, Russia has previously positioned the Quad as a new game of the West, designed to involve India in anti-Chinese strategies and undermine Indo-Russian relations. Given that rhetoric, the Quad member countries' major task will be to balance economic ties in the region while simultaneously curbing the expansion of China. All Quad countries are heavily dependent on Chinese supply chains and each country is more economically integrated with China than with one another. This applies in particular to India and Japan. China is their first or second largest trading partner. Therefore, a number of Indian analysts believe that New Delhi will be able to breathe life into the project becoming an alternative to the Chinese world factory.
India is certainly considered an essential element of any strategy in the region. But so far, New Delhi has not dared either to directly align itself with the US to contain China or add an outright anti-Chinese dimension to its participation in the quartet. Meanwhile, the growing gap in national power, the long-term border confrontation and other related factors might well push Indian strategists to a certain revision of the policy of strategic autonomy and make the US the main security donor, as in the case of Australia and Japan.
The Quad can set the framework for a global governance model in a post-pandemic world but it is unlikely to become a NATO-like formal security alliance. Its evolution will be determined by its ability to mix global challenges in the interests of a wider range of countries. On the other hand, whatever form it takes, the March summit will have an impact on the region's geopolitics. In theory, such dynamics may push Beijing to institutionalise the Himalayan Quad project involving China, Nepal, Pakistan and Afghanistan as a counterweight to the Quad. The pandemic turbulence, which has exposed China-centric vulnerabilities and dependencies, has already spurred India, Japan and Australia to launch a separate global Supply Chain Resilience Initiative (SCRI), which involves their realignment away from China. For many countries in Asia and Oceania, the Chinese factor is the main driver of large-scale arms imports. According to recent data from the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), this particular region was marked as the largest importer of conventional weapons in 2020, accounting for 42% of world trade. All while the main importers were India, Australia, China, South Korea and Pakistan.
Indian analysts use a figure of speech noting that the APR becomes the jackpot in the planet's geo-strategic sweepstakes and the centre-stage on which the new edition of the great game is being enacted. Also, it is difficult to argue that the region belongs to the geopolitical space where the celestial empire - China - challenges both the US and the Asian status quo in an effort to pursue the Chinese dream and gain a status of a great world power.
Thus, the seemingly inevitable and obvious trend of shifting the centre of the world's geopolitics to APR suggests that the coming "Asian Century" will be eventful and hardly anybody can remain unaffected. This specifically refers to those enthusiasts who will be able to timely and accurately see its hidden potential and benefits from the point of view of national interests and formulate the outlines of their own unique strategy for the Asian manouvre.
- Yuri M Yarmolinsky
.........concluded.
My take.
It would be interesting to watch the progress of the Quad over the coming years. The Russians, along with the Chinese, will be the most anxious observers on the growing synergy among the Quad countries.
Tailpiece.
Got up at a 5' to 5 instead of 4 because Lekha's cellphone alarm had played truant. However, we went about our chores, Appu was here by 6 and we could finally kick off for Palakkad, by a half past 6. Padmakumar had cleared all my doubts about the route to the Manappulli Kaavu temple and we reached there by 8. Had a good 'darshan' of the goddess.
Had breakfast of dosas and tomato chutney, made by Lekha, after parking the Chevy in front of the vendors, beside the Palakkad Fort. Washed it down with a cup of tea.
Made a beeline to the Malabar Gold to get Lekha's ornament fixed after 10. We kicked off on our return leg by 12 o'clock and had lunch at Konark in Kunnamkulam.
It was a nice, short journey and we could accomplish everything that we'd wanted to do.
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