How Donald Trump lost India on the Geopolitical chessboard.
Unfortunately, US President Donald Trump pre-empted Modi's speech with his own.
After having crossed the strongest of red lines for India - interference or mediation between India and Pakistan for "Kashmir", which is an internal state of India, part of which is illegally occupied by Pakistan - he doubled down. That happened because his ego made him take credit for what he called a "ceasefire" - while India called it an "understanding". As Modi's speech clearly showed, the US administration had no role to play in that sequence of events.
After completely ruining the the Indo-US relationship, he threw another lighted match into the mix - a trade carrot that could be offered if India and Pakistan complied with his ideas. The equivalence between India and Pakistan was another red line.
With that, Trump, just detonated years of US-India defence diplomacy with one reckless outburst after another.
Declaring that trade should be used to pressure India was the last straw.
With that single remark, he confirmed India's deepest strategic fear : that the US is not a partner but a power that plays favourites - and is ready to weaponize alliances.
If trade can be used as a tool of coercion, what's stopping the US from using defence systems as leverage in wartime?
For Indian planners, it's a chilling prospect : being dependent on a volatile partner who might pull the plug mid-conflict. And there's enough history of that. India remembers Kargil. In its hour of need, when Indian troops were locked in a bloody war in the Himalayas, the US denied India access to GPS data.
That betrayal still echoes in South Block. Now, Trump has reminded New Delhi that even advanced US platforms can become liabilities when the going gets tough.
Trump's comment bruised egos and torched trust. Years of bipartisan effort to anchor India-US defence ties now line in ruins.
The cost?
Billions in lost defence deals, a strategic reset in New Delhi and a glaring signal to Indian policymakers : America under Trump, is too erratic to rely on. America without Trump is the return of the Deep State.
India may now be set to create an entirely different coalition. Henceforth, the way this alignment will move is something to watch now.
Looking at the speech, these seven principles stand out from PM Modi's statements for the world.
* Retaliatory Decisiveness.
Terror attacks will be met with military action, on India's terms, at India's timings and with complete
force.
* Precedent-Shattering response.
The doctrine draws a new red line : no more strategic restraint. Airstrike, drone raids and deep
targeting of infrastructure are fair game.
* No safe havens doctrine.
India will strike at the roots of terror - training centres, financing hubs, ideological nurseries - even
inside hostile states.
* No state-non state differentiation.
No separation between terrorists and their state sponsors (read : Pakistan). If the state harbours them,
it shares the punishment.
* No nuclear blackmail tolerance.
India refuses to be deterred by nuclear threats. Such bluffing will not shield the terror infrastructure
anymore.
* Permanent posture of deterrence.
The doctrine is not an event but a standing policy. Military and intelligence preparedness has been
institutionalised to respond to and uphold it henceforth.
* Geopolitical signalling.
India has clarified that dialogue, trade and diplomacy will be conditioned upon eliminating terrorism
and reclaiming PoK from Pakistan. There is no other discussion to be had with Pakistan.
..........to be concluded.
Tailpiece.
Got up at our usual time, the chores and we opened up the house for the day.
Went for my walk.
The maid was at work.
A quiet day!
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