Wednesday, February 8, 2023

Geopolitics through Economic Clout (1).

China has done/does it, why not India? The Adani Group - a perspective you cannot miss.

When the Adani Group replied to the allegations of Hindenburg, the latter retorted, 'Fraud cannot be obfuscated by nationalism'. There is a school of thought that says that the Hindenburg report was a hit job and Adani is a nationalist. Let us evaluate.

Leave aside the fact that the Hindenburg report was timed with the release of the FPO; there is a greater aspect to the timing. It was done when Adani was to acquire the Haifa port in Israel. And who other than Adani was interested in the Haifa port?

It was the Chinese. They already run the container yard at Haifa and wanted control of the entire port. But what destroyed their goal was that Adani bid five times the bid of the second bidder and secured the contract. Was it at the instance of the Indian government?

What is the importance of Haifa to India? India is coming up with a trade route which starts at JNPT Bombay, goes to UAE, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Israel (Haifa), Cyprus, Greece and beyond - giving access to entire Europe and vice versa. It is under active progress and without this important link to Haifa, there would be a hitch. So, it was no surprise that Adani bid five times the amount to acquire it. 

China was trying the same thing and it has already invested 13 billion USD in the BRI project in this area. Is it the government of India that was indirectly trying to undo this Chinese attempt to acquire Haifa?

Future wars will be fought more on the economic front than on the battlefield. It is now a conviction that the government is backing its two financial giants - Ambani and Adani - who commit to promote national economy and acquire strategic assets, as also counter any outside forces that tend to obstruct this path.

This school of thought also believes that the Egyptian President, who was called as the chief guest at the Republic Day parade, was not without reason. As among the many MOUs signed with Egypt, one very significant was "India being given the right to develop the Economic Development Zone and industry around the Suez Canal". Since Haifa and Suez are the two main gateways to Europe, this would be a big step in that direction.

Now, it would be worth evaluating where Adani has invested and whether those match with the government's interest.

In the immediate neighbourhood, Sri Lanka is a case in point. So far China had monopoly and it had started taking over the ports after Sri Lanka was cash strapped and went insolvent. It was here that Adani entered the scene and acquired the rights to develop the Colombo Port's western container terminal, committing 700 million USD.

In addition, Adani Green Energy has received approvals for two separate projects to produce 510 MW of electricity which requires an additional commitment of 500 million USD. It has freed Sri Lanka from a portion of its debt trap.

.........to be continued.


Tailpiece.

Got up at 6, the chores, the Wednesday 'aarathi' of the house and was ready by a half past 10.

Arya and Sharon, from ICICI Bank and Roy, the plumber had come by post lunch for work.

The maid was at work and left after completing her work by a quarter past 5.   

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