Thursday, April 21, 2016

The Kerala Assembly Election Results - A Likely Scenario!

I'm no politician and must admit that it doesn't interest me either but being a normal 'mallu', I too am keen to know as to what the outcome's gonna be. So, let me begin with an analysis of the overall scenario.

  (a) Selection of candidates.

        The LDF has opted to field popular faces like film actors, as independents, provoking the
        question into everyone's mind - aren't its cadre members, who've come up the hard way, not
        good enough to contest elections? The constituent parties' bid for increasing their share of seats
        was brusquely brushed aside by the CPM and by itself, it's contesting in over 90 seats, implying
        that if it were to win more than 70, the others will not matter and its decisions will be forced
        through - a dangerous situation! What's the promise given to the veteran, Gauri Amma, that
        she and her party has opted not to contest?

        The UDF has had revolts within the constituents till the last moment over 'safe' seats. The
        selection of candidates was tough going between the old timers and the youth, within the
        Congress. Of the three factional heads viz. Oommen Chandy, Ramesh Chennithala and
        VM Sudheeran, Chandy seems to have got what he wanted....well almost, except for Benny

        The BJP's candidate list had the mortifying sight of being slashed by its central leadership
        with guys like Sreesanth being inserted, making an average voter wonder as to whether the
        party was mocking at his/her intelligence! Has the party already conceded that constituency
        of Thiruvananthapuram to its opponents or is it under the illusion that the youth would plonk
        for the discredited cricketer? And it's one's sincere wish that Sri O Rajagopal wins from the
        Nemom constituency!

   (b) The Manifestos. 

         One wishes that the LDF had clearly stated its liquor policy, in that, it would strive for
         reduction in consumption through novel means of education and scrap the 'prohibition'
         route which is impractical and will lead to illegal manufacture of booze.

         The UDF manifesto has proclaimed ambitious plans to provide additional jobs which viewed
         against the backdrop of the many projects that it had got going towards its tenure, seems to
         be an achievable target. But why are controversies being whipped up by the government, even
         now, by a few of its decisions?

         The BJP-SNDP's manifesto is yet to be released at the time of writing this piece. Hope there're
         unique suggestions that have been overlooked by its opponents.

The Likely Scenario.

My prediction is that both the LDF and the UDF will be tied in the number of seats that they garner around 65 each with the BJP-SNDP combine snatching away about 10 - the most optimistic prediction at that in addition to weaning away crucial votes from the two fronts. It means a hung Assembly and for the first time since '65, the state is poised for a President's Rule.


Electioneering is yet to pick up heat. Probably, it will over the next week after the nomination papers are submitted by the candidates! The scorching heat is gonna give them a run for their money!!


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